I have become a bit inured to the Peak Oil phenomenon. At this point, I assume it will happen, hopefully at a rate slow enough for us to adjust our lifestyles. James Kunstler, author of the Long Emergency, has some predictions for 2006 and explanations for the present illusion of stability.
I hasten to remind the reader that peak is peak, meaning right now we are all operating on the basis of a lot of oil flowing around the world. The comfort level is still high. The factories are still humming in China, and the six-lane commuting corridors are still full of big cars around Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, and Minneapolis. The problem is that the oil supply will soon steadily diminish at a rate of at least three percent a year, and that necking down of supply is likely to be expressed in greater geopolitical friction and turmoil between the great nations who crave oil.
The US squeaked through the huge loss of oil production capacity this fall by taking oil from our own strategic petroleum reserves and from Europe's. These actions kept oil prices in the high fifty-dollar-range through the holidays, giving Americans a false sense of festive security.
Some good reasoning. Read the whole article