Gone to Croatoan

[think] Long-term

2008-07-15T23:16:00.001-07:00

All work and no play

2006-12-29T08:01:00.000-08:00

I now work at SFGH on the fourth floor. My unit specializes in Traumatic Brain Injury, ICU step-down and acute alcohol withdrawal. All I can say is that if the Nursing School learning curve was a Sunday drive in the park, the curve I am on now is a demolition derby.

Several factors make this nursing very daunting: The sheer volume of documentation, the constant manual keeping up with ever changing Doctor’s orders; the clarification of said orders; the delivery of medications and procedures in a timely and accurate manner; the pressure to know what each of these meds do and whether or not the Doctor is wrong. All the while, since this is ICU step-down, knowing that my patient may head south and I may need to call a MERT (Medical Evaluation Response Team) or a CODE. In addition, because General hired me as a Per-Diem Nurse, I only get 14-days training and I am on day eleven. I have already challenged the logic of this with my manager and nurse educator however.

Presently I am handling three patients with my preceptor (the maximum for my unit) and I am learning team nursing, where I work with an LVN who has three patients also. This means though that I am ultimately responsible for all six patients and for the delivery of IV medication to my LVN’s patients. I also need to sign off on all my LVN’s massive documentation.

My brain is literally being rewired. I have the ‘overwhelm’ dreams typical of any new intense job; during my days off, my mind is constantly gravitating back to work.

Don’t get me wrong, I am okay with this. At this point in my life, perhaps because I realize there are fewer days ahead than there are behind, I don’t care about the stress. I have absolutely no interest any longer in finding what will ultimately make me ‘fulfilled’. I don’t care if I have mean coworkers or bosses. I obsessed about this ad nauseum in the past and no longer have any patience for it. Miraculously, I have learned to completely ignore insults, slights, and even outright aggression. There is even time to crack an inappropriate joke now and then.

I have found a good career; it will likely be my last, albeit with variation along the way. I will get through this learning curve. Four of the charge nurses on my unit are City College graduates who came to 4B between two and four years ago; they make it look easy. Eventually, so will I.

Sustainablity

2006-07-06T09:09:00.000-07:00

I am thinking of rededicating Gone to Croatoan to the notion of sustainable living. What with the slow unfolding of Peak Oil on our lives driving up the price of everything, and the simutaneous crash of the housing market nationally, it seems to me that a great deal of heartache could be prevented.

Just shop less; turn off your TV's; drive less. "Sure, sure. Easy for you to say," you say. I think we are arriving at a point where you can either simplify voluntarily, on your own terms, or you will be forced to, through circumstance.

NCLEX

2006-06-25T22:24:00.000-07:00

Studying for the dreaded NCLEX. and testing out a new blogging tool.

Predictions

2006-01-07T14:52:00.000-08:00

I have become a bit inured to the Peak Oil phenomenon. At this point, I assume it will happen, hopefully at a rate slow enough for us to adjust our lifestyles. James Kunstler, author of the Long Emergency, has some predictions for 2006 and explanations for the present illusion of stability.

Some tidbits...

I hasten to remind the reader that peak is peak, meaning right now we are all operating on the basis of a lot of oil flowing around the world. The comfort level is still high. The factories are still humming in

China

, and the six-lane commuting corridors are still full of big cars around Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, and Minneapolis. The problem is that the oil supply will soon steadily diminish at a rate of at least three percent a year, and that necking down of supply is likely to be expressed in greater geopolitical friction and turmoil between the great nations who crave oil.

and...

The

squeaked through the huge loss of oil production capacity this fall by taking oil from our own strategic petroleum reserves and from Europe's. These actions kept oil prices in the high fifty-dollar-range through the holidays, giving Americans a false sense of festive security.

Some good reasoning. Read the whole article.

Focused Fusion

2005-11-10T10:25:00.000-08:00

By their nature, corporations and government bureaucracies have a stake in keeping things going the way they always have been going. New technologies that threaten to replace the existing order jeopardize hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions in revenue.

It is therefore easy to see why a technology such a fusion - a threat to the petroleum industry - would be sabotaged at worst, and under funded at best.

Jim at the Energy Blog, always leading the way on news that is threatening to the Oil industry, today points out an under funded Fusion project.

About Focus Fusion

Developers, led by Eric J. Lerner, are developing Focus Fusion, a fusion process to generate electricity that is expected to be relatively cheap, highly efficient, and small enough to fit into a garage. The process which channels hydrogen-boron fuel through a plasma focusing device, uses a smaller, more elegant approach than is currently being pursued by conventional fusion researchers. This device could be fired up and shut off with the flip of a switch, with no damaging radiation, no threat of meltdown, and no possibility of explosions

Focus Fusion reactors are small and decentralized, ideally suited for distributed power generation. Focus Fusion reactors can fit into a garage. Lawrenceville Plasma Physics (LPP) Focus Fusion project aims at developing an electric generator with a projected output of about 5 MW, sufficient for a small community. The Focus Fusion process can produce electricity directly without the need to generate steam, use a turbine or use a rotating generator. The reactors are extremely compact and economical, with expected costs of $300,000 apiece. As the fuel is an insignificant cost, electric power production is estimated at about one tenth of a cent per kWh, fifty times cheaper than current costs. Because it can be shut off and turned on so easily, a bank of these could easily accommodate whatever surges and ebbs are faced by the grid on a given day, without wasting unused energy from non-peak times into the environment, which is the case with much of the grid’s energy at present. On-site personnel are not needed on a daily basis, maintenance would be rare. One technician could operate a dozen facilities by themselves.

There is much more, read on…

Well wha'dy'a know

2005-11-06T19:41:00.000-08:00

From the Associated Press:

DALLAS - Wind turbines supplying energy to homes and businesses will one day line Texas' 376-mile coastline if the state's Land Office Commissioner has his way. The turbines will stand about 10 miles offshore, enough to preserve the treasured view but close enough to make coastal wind power an affordable energy alternative still missing in the United States, Commissioner Jerry Patterson said. Last month, the office announced a deal with a Louisiana contractor to build 50 turbines designed to power about 40,000 homes.

That, and a great statement the other day from AWEA:

The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) stated today in its Third Quarter Market Report that the U.S. wind energy industry will install about 2,500 megawatts (MW) of new wind power this year, a record amount that will help lower skyrocketing home heating and electric bills by reducing the demand for natural gas. Wind energy projects also bring new jobs, rural economic development, and tax revenues to cash-strapped states without creating any of the harmful side-effects associated with conventional power generation.

Big Oil Record Profits?

2005-10-29T03:16:00.000-07:00

Yet production is falling. As Jerome a Paris pointed out yesterday:

"So Big Oil's huge profits are really the swan song of the industry: they are taking advantage of their own inability to produce more, and of the NOCs's inability or unwillingness to produce more, which creates stagnant production at a time of strong demand growth. These are windfall profits coming from the depletion of the good they provide, not a sign of health and not a sign of price gouging."

Electric Motorin'

2005-10-11T03:45:00.000-07:00

A great post on the DailyKos this morning concerning electric cars. One of the historical impasses has been that batteries take so long to recharge. Not so anymore. NEC Lamillion Energy Co., Ltd has a battery that recharges in 15 minutes and the Toshiba battery that I have hyped here before can soak up 80% of its capacity in one minute! Check out the whole posting.

Well Said

2005-10-03T17:48:00.000-07:00

While reading over another great diary by Stirling Newberry on the Daily Kos, a comment by PLS caught my eye. It is a good summation of what I have been trying to point out over here at GTC.

The technical civilization does depend on cheap energy, and cannot exist without it. Just like writing in the absence of agriculture, it just doesn't happen.

You see, the key is how many people have to spend most of thier time on subsistance activies in a society. Almost any hunter-gatherer group can support a few specialists - the shamin, for example. You have to have agriculture to support enough specialists for writing and reading to arrise.

The discovery and use of petro-chemicals has allowed even fewer people to be involved in subsistance activities. Basically because the energy we would normally have to put into survival activites is being put in by petro-chemicals. We all have an ton of energy slaves growing and raising our food, and then bringing it to us. Likewise our clothes. My great grandmother made her famlies clothes, and created them without benifit of patterns. Without another abundant cheap energy sourse, our way of life is impossible because all of our "advances" are based upon it.

We are arrogant, and think that we have all these things because we are smarter than those before us. Wrong, just think what Michealangelo would have done w/oil.

Looks like the Technical civilization is a one-shot deal. To bad we haven't realized how valuable the black gold really is. We squandered it mainly to avoid excersizing - imagine that!

As you can see, I can't really give up being a Cassandra.

Cassandra

2005-10-02T09:47:00.000-07:00

I have often fallen into, perhaps even enjoyed being in, the roll of the Cassandra. For those of you that are unaware of the myth, Cassandra was the daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy. As with all the Greek gods and goddesses, she was blessed and cursed at the same time. She had a little tryst with Apollo, so he blessed her with the gift of prophesy. Then when things went south, he cursed her by having no one believe her.

While I continue to follow the Peak Oil phenomenon, and you should too, it has become mainstream. I feel less compelled to be a Cassandra in that, finally, this is becoming a topic of broader discussion. There is some good research being done out there. As for myself, I have become more resigned to it; we are either going to make a difficult transition to alternative fuels or we are not. I guess all the blathering I did helped me come to terms with it, like a person coming to accept terminal cancer. I am as prepared for Peak Oil as I am willing to be.

There are legion of Cassandra on the political front. Except for the occasional spasm (see archives), I have been refraining from regular political commentary – I would be consumed. We are alive and witnessing the most corrupt presidency in the 229-year history of this country; sometimes the urge to explode is overwhelming. Finally, maybe, just now, this too is becoming part of mainstream discussion.

The question then becomes what to do with Gone to Croatoan. The mission statement has been “My impressions about the imminent loss of our petroleum way of life, what can be done to cope during the transition and what it means to recover from it.” The imagery that inspired the blog title was one of walking away from it all. Many myths surround the Lost Colony (see blog footnote below). The one I like is that the settlers, having a rough time imposing their European ways on the wild mid-Atlantic coast, simply gave up and threw in their lot with the natives; they went Paleolithic and thrived.

I want to keep that image. I like it. It describes me fairly well. However, I want to expand the range from solely Peak Oil to other topics as well. I have been inspired recently by Viggo Mortensen’s website Perceval Press. It is left-leaning, like me and encompasses a variety of topics and features artwork and articles, intermixed with commentary. In a recent Charlie Rose interview I watched, he said that he has no other agenda than to put up topics he, and other posters in his group, think might be interesting.

My other blogsites, "on-a-personal- note” and “post-petroleum-clearinghouse” were the result of trying to keep GTC on topic. With the first, I felt that my family and friends might want something less controversial and the second evolved out of the shear volume of links to other great, similarly themed sites.

Instead of starting a fourth blog, I think I will just merge back to one, after all, I am a rather busy student. Henceforth, a new Mission Statement: “Gone to Croatoan; impressions on living in the world while striving not to be too much of it.”

Speaking of school, soon the Labor and Delivery rotation will end for me here at SFGH. Psych will be next.

(from "One flew over the Cuckoo's Nest")

Update 1:30pm - On second thought, as I sit here at UCSF library scanning all the links at post petroleum (at T1 speeds!), I see that most of the blogs I linked to have linked to GTC as well. It would be unfair to them for me to change the GTC theme. Also, all those cool links here on the front page would no longer be appropriate. Folks with real (for $) web domains do not have this dilemma in that each new blog would just be another page within their domain.
Maybe a fourth blog is in order. It could be called Nightingale.

Moms and babies

2005-09-15T21:51:00.000-07:00

While I figure the ins and outs of delivering babies, keep up with the latest on the alternative energy front over at The Energy Blog.

There is quite a bit there about solar technologies and more on the subject of the zinc oxide - solar process that I had blogged about some months ago.

(image source: www.americanpregnancy.org)

Al Gore is my President

2005-09-10T08:18:00.000-07:00

The DailyKos has recently surpassed the daily site traffic of the top fifty conservative blogs combined. During the height of the New Orleans disaster the site received upwards of 900,000 hits a day. There are many great writers who post here, in fact when Markos (the site founder) was off writing a book recently, he was hardly missed (no offense to Markos).

One such writer is "Joan Reports" and today she pointed something out that I had read days ago and have been pondering since. Al Gore really is my President. His humble and personal reponse to the disaster reminded me that not all people of presidential character are corrupt. In fact, some are endowed with the ability to inspire, as this man has done for me.

Read joan reports diary in full and the great comments. I have just given you an intro.

AP reports it: Gore airlifted 270 patients and residents Saturday/Sunday

by joan reports

Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 22:54:59 PDT

The first VP to land in New Orleans was Al Gore, who chartered a rescue plane to medEvac Charity Hospital patients to Tennessee. Gore declined interviews last weekend while he was shuttling the evacuees, but the doctors who flew with him talked about the experience.

Gore had to work around sequential blockade by FEMA and NDMS – which naturally denied his team permissions, repeatedly (after the flip).

KNOXVILLE, Tenn.(AP) - Al Gore helped airlift some 270 Katrina evacuees on two private charters from New Orleans, acting at the urging of a doctor who saved the life of the former vice president's son.

... [Gore] refused to be interviewed about the mercy missions he financed and flew last Saturday and Sunday. . . .

On [Thurs] Sept. 1, three days after Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, Simon learned that Dr. David Kline ... was stranded with patients at Charity Hospital in New Orleans.

"The situation was dire and becoming worse by the minute - food and water running out, no power, 4 feet of water surrounding the hospital and ... corpses outside," Simon wrote.

Gore responded immediately . . .

'nuf said

2005-09-08T13:27:00.000-07:00

No child what?

2005-09-02T04:27:00.000-07:00

All I can do is post this essay by Hunter over at the Daily Kos in its entirety.

Left behind

Hunter

Fri Sep 2nd, 2005 at 00:10:40 PDT

The last twelve hours of news coverage has been nearly overwhelming. Anderson Cooper, Paula Zahn, others, even unapologetic partisans like Joe Scarborough and Tucker Carlson -- everyone is asking where the government is. (No, I haven't turned to Fox News. I don't have the heart, today.) Anderson Cooper lost it interviewing Sen. Mary Landrieu, countering her litany of thank-yous to a series of politicians with his own encounter with rats eating a body that had been left abandoned in the street for 48 hours. Paula Zahn boggled at FEMA director Michael Brown's declaration that the reason about 15,000 shelter seekers at the New Orleans Convention Center have gone without food or water since the day of the hurricane is because FEMA didn't even know the refugees were there until today.

The common televised theme is of reporters traveling to hard hit areas in New Orleans or the smaller communities, and reporting no FEMA presence, no National Guard presence, no food, no water, no help -- and this is day 5. "Where is the government?" has been the predominant theme of the day. Apologists are being met with barely concealed disgust, in more and more quarters. Bush administration cuts to the levee system are being widely reported. FEMA inaction is being roundly criticized by ever-more-urgent live feeds from disheveled media figures with stunned expressions.

The Convention Center situation appears to be horrific, with deaths of elderly and infants due to dehydration already now occurring. It's not clear if anything can be or is being done tonight, or how many will die between now and the morning, or what will happen then.

The lawlessness is rampant. It's important to note, however, that the lawlessness wasn't rampant on Monday. It wasn't rampant on Tuesday. We heard only twinges of it on Wednesday. Today, from the sounds of the reports, a city devoid of all hope devolved into absolute chaos.

It is nighttime again in New Orleans, and after four days of no food, no water, no communications, no security forces, and no apparent discernible plan that they can see, trust and hope that rescuers will arrive seems all but gone. If the forces had arrived on Tuesday, things would be different.

It is simply too stunning, too shocking, too soul-draining. Nobody knows where the emergency relief has been. Nobody can quite understand why the response to the catastrophe only now seems shuddering to life.

The politics are omnipresent, but present only a hollow shell behind which a sea, an absolute frothing sea, of much worse realizations are crowding every mind. This was a disaster the country had been preparing for. This was one of the disasters most predicted, most feared, most planned for. There was two days of advance warning, as the massive, category 5 hurricane shifted purposefully towards New Orleans. This was no terrorist attack -- this time, there was warning. This time, there was knowledge.

And yet, the much-reshuffled domestic security resculpted as a result of 9-11 simply didn't show up. It wasn't there. FEMA, which has been hacked, shuffled, and gutted in the last few years, proved unable to respond to a catastrophic emergency situation. The catastrophic emergency situation, along the Gulf Coast, the one that sounded the alarms two days before landfall, the one that triggered the warnings of nightmare scenarios known for years in advance, and yet if there was any advance plan at all, any knowledge at all, any fathoming at all of how to respond in the fourty-eight hours most critical for the survival of the victims, it didn't show up. The roads were clogged, the islands were flooded, the levees were breached, and homeland security wasn't there, leaving each state, each town, each police force, each wrecked band of shell-shocked survivors to fend, and make do, while convoys were organized and strategies prepared with seeming obliviousness to the urgency of the numbers and clocks. There is... almost nothing meaningful to say.

The apparent and most likely explanations for the failure, known long before the fact, are almost shattering when reread today, while the ongoing catastrophe unfolds around us.

We have witnessed two disasters this week. The first was an act of nature. The second was not. The second disaster, still ongoing, is unforgivable.

That's the only word that comes to mind, a word I keep repeating to myself. These deaths, these men, these women, these infants dying now in these hours didn't have to happen. They did not have to die waiting for convoys to gather outside their city or for reservists to stand alongside their shattered police forces. They did not have to wait in darkness and fear for help to arrive, only to struggle for days without that help ever coming.

This is not politics. This is not partisanship.

This is unforgivable.

That's right, dumbass, get in that truck, drive away and never return.

Nero

2005-08-31T03:38:00.000-07:00

"Nero fiddled while Rome burned." Yes, these pictures were all taken on the same day. (Courtesy of Ameroblog and Yahoo.)

The good old days

2005-08-23T16:29:00.000-07:00

I am about to take a bold step, or should I say, back-step. My computer crashed the other day and a funny thing happened, I survived. Thank the four winds for kind web-connected neighbors. I should be up and running in a day or so, but rather spontaneously today, I canceled my broadband; that’s right, I am back to dial-up. The fact is, I am a broadband junky. The rapidity with which I have been able to research any number of things to the speed and ease of posting blog diaries, has kept me captivated for hours at a time. That was all well and good while I was on vacation, but now, starting my third semester in nursing school, it is a different story.

I am going to cut back my posting here. From what I am seeing, the message about Peak Oil is out and the slim-ball-in-chief is in a ratings tailspin. I am most pleased.

Worry not fans, I am only refocusing on my future career, the adjustments to a post petroleum world will be a drawn out process (thankfully), which means there will be a lot to post about during the next several years. I am just apologizing in advance for the lack of frequency.

In the mean time, Jim over at The Energy Blog is posting some really great, inspiring and optimistic energy news quite regularly; my blog wants to grow up to be like his.

D'oh!

2005-08-20T16:19:00.000-07:00

My computer is down. Will post soon.

Buying time

2005-08-16T19:05:00.000-07:00

Since Toshiba invented that highly efficient Lithium-ion battery a few months back and Mitsubishi is designing an electric car based on that battery, then we would not need as much in the way of liquid fuels. Our impending transportation crisis could be dealt with by adding more electricity to the grid and, of course, more grid.

The environmental concerns of mining and burning coal must be seriously considered, but as I said before, at current rates of consumption, coal will provide electricity for another 200 years.

Perhaps we can add this to the list of inventions that buy us time. Time in which to dump the current neocon oil hogs and time to develop some real homegrown alternative energy sources and storage mediums that have absolutely no connection to the fossil fuels coal, petroleum or natural gas.

Hmm, I'll make an exception for 3-in-1 oil; handy stuff, that!

(Thanks to Jim at The Energy Blog for the MSNBC article.)

Converging vectors

2005-08-15T09:24:00.000-07:00

(image courtesy U.C. Davis)

As usual, an excellent article by Jerome a Paris in regards to the multiple converging vectors leading to glorious catastrophe. Damn you Jerome, just when I was feeling the tendrils of complacency….

[from the article. I recommend a full read (link above) as well as a read of the comments, as many of the arguments and other pov's are good.]
So we have the combination of Bush (borrow and spend like there is no tomorrow, give money to the rich and to the corporations), Greenspan (flood the zone with money), the US consumer (stagnant wages, but cheap money from home equity withdrawals or plastic, thus still consuming - including lots of gas-guzzling SUVs), and the oil producers (unable or unwilling to invest), and we are getting very near the end of this exercise in burning your reserves:

this is supposed to be an economic recovery, yet debt levels are at record highs and interest rates are still low. What will be available to cushion the shock when it comes? Not public deficts, not private debt, and not lower interest rates.
this is an economy built on cheap oil. When it stops being cheap, what will happen to those that have suburban houses, 50 mile commutes, 15 MPG cars and no access to public transport? what will happen to the corresponding real estate markets? what will happen to the manufacturers of the gas-guzzlers?

The recent apparent prosperity comes from having burnt through all our capacity to absorb shocks. It can last for a while, so long as there are no shocks, but we all realise that this is not very reasonable (especially when your foreign policy consists in creating massive instability in the most sensitive area of the world). We are highly vulnerable, and the consequences of any shock will be brutal - and we know that shocks are coming on the money and oil fronts.

As an individual, you still have the chance today to protect yourself from these inevitable trends, because the country as a whole will not escape it, and neither will the rest of the world.

Site meter

2005-08-11T13:42:00.000-07:00

The site meter just broke 5,000 hits. With 760 hits on Personal Note and 1,160 on Post Petroleum Clearinghouse, that makes 6,920 all together. Wew!

Back to school

2005-08-09T15:47:00.000-07:00

I have been trying to figure out how this blog will evolve. School is about to start again and it promises to be rigorous. I started this blog precisely half way through last semester, with a full head of steam. The paradigm shift I was going through was intense. I was compelled to research, write, ponder and research some more, right in the middle of clinicals and exams; I could not help it.

Of late though, I am feeling that I have less to say. I do not feel that we are in for any less of a rough ride, it is just that it does not seems like such a bad thing anymore. Mentally at least, I am prepared for a variety of lifestyle change scenarios from mild to catastrophic. I have put aside a year's worth of food and 90 day's worth of water (less if I choose to share). In addition, I have been collecting implements and tools that would come in handy in a world without oil and only sporadic electricity. We will be heading back to basics to some degree and, as any musician or martial artist will tell you, getting back to basics is always good.

I think these things have helped me relax a little bit. I have noticed an interesting phenomenon – many of us peak oilers are slowing down; the intensity of the blogging has diminished. Even Jeremy over at fantastic planet was feeling a bit burnt out as of August 2. Perhaps we are all coming to similar conclusions.

Concurrently, witnessing the breathtaking incompetence of the current administrations efforts at, well, everything, has lead me to an interesting inner place. In a sad but reifying way, I have lost all faith. I trust no one in government at any level to watch out for me. In fact, there is no one watching over any of us. You are charged now with watching over yourselves and the small community around you that you really trust. It may just be you; it may include one or two others; it may include a small section of your neighborhood. This may be the most essential ingredient in the recipe for survival; not just survival in a post-petroleum Mad Max world, but survival in the here and now. If you can rely on yourself, you've got it made, if you can rely on just a few others, you have more than kings.

My blogging may be less frequent in the months ahead or I may get a second wind and keep it up. I do recall telling someone that blogging was an excellent creative outlet, sorely lacking in my nursing school studies. We will see.

I have always been this way

2005-08-02T21:13:00.000-07:00

Recently, while preparing my TEOTWAWKI closet, I pulled out my old backpack to see if there was anything survival worthy therein. The last time I even looked in this pack was before I moved to San Francisco seven years ago. I found my old canteen, some woolen socks, some interlocking silverware and this gem, “Outdoor Survival Skills” by Larry Dean Olsen. As I sat there, thumbing through this book, I let out a chuckle, and had to acknowledge that I had always been this way - the survivalist Indian/Tarzan wannabe.

This was one of my favorite books in high school. This copy, printed in 1976, includes a foreword by Robert Redford who had recently completed “Jeremiah Johnson.” I do not remember how I came across it originally, but I remember committing a lot of it to memory. I was wondering about that great book I used to have, which taught how to make bows and arrows, snares, shelter and fire from things found in nature. I assumed I had given it away but it seems that it was with me all along.

It makes sense now why I turned on like a lighthouse when I read my first well-written article on Peak Oil; I had preprogrammed myself to fall into survival mode. Perhaps it was more likely that I realized how lazy I had become and felt the need to brush up immediately.

I remember the energy crisis of the 70’s and my coveted subscription to Mother Earth News. I remember my plans to build an earth bermed/passive solar house and a biodynamic French intensive garden. I remember building a homemade net-hammock and rigging it, dozens of feet off the ground in a tall oak out in the backyard, just so I could sleep in the treetops. (I remember it not being very comfortable at all either!)

Now here we are on the brink of another energy crisis, only this time, no falling asleep at the wheel.

Washington, D.C.

2005-07-29T06:21:00.000-07:00

Sorry folks, I've been here for the past week. I will post soon.

Bubbles

2005-07-21T08:02:00.000-07:00

(image courtesy sundesus.net)

Here is an article that shows promise for small-scale fusion. Scientists at Purdue have acheived results indicating that they have produced a successful nuclear fusion reaction in a small laboratory setting.

“’The two key signatures for a fusion reaction are emission of neutrons in the range of 2.5 MeV and production of tritium, both of which were seen in these experiments..’”

The mechanism for producing the reaction in this experiment is called ‘acoustic cavitation.’ Sound waves are used to cause the formation of micro bubbles in a fluid. When these bubbles implode, they produce tremendous heat and pressure, albeit on a small scale.

“Researchers have estimated that temperatures inside the imploding bubbles reach 10 million degrees Celsius and pressures comparable to 1,000 million earth atmospheres at sea level.”

These conditions mimic the fusion reactions within the sun and also - what scientists are trying to duplicate on a larger scale - the Tokamak (magnetic confinement fusion) and high energy lasers (inertial confinement fusion).

The development of ANY form of small scale controlled fusion would be fantastic:

“Development of a low-cost thermonuclear fusion generator would offer the potential for a new, relatively safe and low-polluting energy source. Whereas conventional nuclear fission reactors make waste products that take thousands of years to decay, the waste products from fusion plants would be short-lived, decaying to non-dangerous levels in a decade or two. For the same unit mass of fuel, a fusion power plant would produce 10 times more energy than a fission reactor, and because deuterium is contained in seawater, a fusion reactor's fuel supply would be virtually infinite. A cubic kilometer of seawater would contain enough heavy hydrogen to provide a thousand years' worth of power for the United States.”

Is it time for Mr. Fusion?

Is Congress getting a clue?

2005-07-19T08:31:00.000-07:00

(Winston Churchill addressing congress Dec. 26, 1941)

While I have grown permanently cynical about our elected officials caring for anything beyond the bidding of their corporate masters (see snark at the end of last post), Sterling Newberry points out today that Congress is more than ever interested in Peak Oil.

While much of the focus has been on the Supreme Court, something else has been making the rounds in Congress, and on both sides of the aisle.

Interest in Peak Oil.

It may be something which has slipped under the radar screen, but it is also a reality: in the last 6 months the group think of Washington DC has changed dramatically, and various politicians are now feeling around for higher ground.

The bricks of this consensus are:

Iraq is a dry hole.
The tooth fairie has not found another Saudi Arabia.
The Chinese are seeking to secure oil at source.
Something has to be done about all of this.

The Saudi’s are admitting that the days of the light sweet crude are coming to a close, what is left is the sour crude which requires much more refining, an ability we do not have, hence the push for more refineries. Combining this with some healthy competition from other countries...

Nothing like a Sputnik crisis to light a fire, I always said.

Household finance

2005-07-18T21:06:00.000-07:00

In my observation, in spite of excellent home finance software like Quicken and MSMoney, people have no idea how much they are spending in any category of their financial lives.

It was over ten years ago that I was introduced to Quicken. I was enamored from the start. I had a job at the time watching over master control of a local TV station in south Florida between the hours of 11:00pm and 7:00am. The station was largely automated at night so I had time to play with the office computer and its programs. It was there that I learned how to categorize my financial life. Within a few months, I was tracking and categorizing everything I spent down to a cup of coffee. What happened was that, over time, I really got a handle on how I was spending my money. I could see where I was spending frivolously. I saw the how the category 'restaurants' would spike during an intense stretch of dating, prompting me to be a better cook at home. I could also see that my caffeine addiction cost me $750.00 annually, and has only worstened over the years.

Households are often run paycheck to paycheck and the definition of a “budget” is something on the order of, “Learning what we can get for our money and do our best to live within that amount.” The expression, “not enough month at the end of the money,” is an all too common situation in consumerist America.

I personally know of no one that tracks their expenses this way, though I am sure there are those that do. The shame of it is that this kind of detailed household financing would show, in nicely colored graphs, how something like the increasing price of oil affects the household bottom line. Without a monthly report showing a spike in their ‘personal transportation’ category, people will not change their habits as the prices rise. They will fill up the tank, note in passing how expensive gas is getting, toss the receipt on the floor and forget about it.

The insidious problem as I see it, is that by not having a firm grasp on how last month’s expenses differed from the month before, there is no motivation, no sense of panic to make the (possibly drastically) needed changes to the family lifestyle. As the months roll on there is only the sense that, for some reason, they are further behind than ever; or a straw - like a protracted illness or a layoff - breaks the camels back and the family is suddenly facing foreclosure.

How can this help with the Peak Oil phenomenon? Not much directly, but tracking how much we are spending on gas and noticing that the price of everything is rising more quickly than usual, might personalize Peak Oil. The more people are personally affected, the more voices we will hear telling our elected officials that the alternatives need to be developed, NOW.

And we all know that our elected officials have our best interests at heart don’t we?

The simple life

2005-07-14T10:33:00.000-07:00

One of my sisters' today e-mailed me this cute little story. It has apparently made the internet rounds with a few versions.

A boat docked in a tiny Mexican village. An American tourist complimented the Mexican fisherman on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took him to catch them.

"Not very long," answered the Mexican.

"But then, why didn't you stay out longer and catch more?" asked the American.

The Mexican explained that his small catch was sufficient to meet his needs and those of his family.

The American asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your time?"

"I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, and take a siesta with my wife. In the evenings, I go into the village to see my friends, have a few drinks, play the guitar, and sing a few songs. I have a full life."

The American interrupted, "I have an MBA from Harvard and I can help you! You should start by fishing longer every day. You can then sell the extra fish you catch. With the extra revenue, you can buy a bigger boat."

And after that?" asked the Mexican.

With the extra money the larger boat will bring, you can buy a second one and a third one and so on until you have an entire fleet of trawlers. Instead of selling your fish to a middle man, you can then negotiate directly with the processing plants and maybe even open your own plant. You can then leave this little village and move to Mexico City, Los Angeles, or even New York City! From there you can direct your huge new enterprise."

"How long would that take?" asked the Mexican.

"Twenty, perhaps twenty-five years," replied the American.

"And after that?"

"Afterwards? Well my Friend, That's when it gets really interesting," answered the American, laughing. "When your business gets really big, you can start selling stocks and make millions!"

"Millions? Really? And after that?" said the Mexican.

"After that you'll be able to retire, live in a tiny village near the coast, sleep late, play with your children, catch a few fish, take a siesta with your wife and spend your evenings drinking and enjoying your friends."

I realize that this is one of the conclusions to which I have been coming: The transition to the post petroleum world will be messy to a greater or lesser degree. At some point, a stasis will be reached and I argue that we will find that the quality of our lives will have actually improved. It behooves us in the west to really define what quality of life means. I think it is something other than technology and money, and that is coming from an avowed techhead and someone who has made a little money in the stock market.

These days, I’m with the simple Mexican portrayed in the story.
(Gaugin- Siesta 1894)

More mainstream acknowledgement

2005-07-12T07:50:00.000-07:00

Our peak oil champion, Jerome a Paris, over at the Daily Kos and the European Tribune, has once again pointed to something notable. It seems that Chevron, is publicly acknowledging Peak Oil, and beseeching us to work together. Such a pronouncement ought to make us suspicious, says Jerome, but we should ignore that urge, take this as a talking point and let it be yet another rallying cry. Here is Jerome’s article.

Something to note: when I started this blog in March, petroleum was below $50.00 a barrel. It has passed $60.00 and it is mid July now. Tick-tock-tick-tock.

At ease man!

2005-07-06T22:15:00.000-07:00

I have been noticing, especially on long walks, when I have lots of time to think, that I am becoming more at ease with the potential disaster that faces us.

Like many of you readers, I have been on a self-taught, mini-internet-based-peak-oil-seminar since March when I first became aware of just how ‘impending’ this crisis is. I have learned that there is much for which to be hopeful. The alternatives are out there. Biodiesel from algae, Solar-Zinc-air batteries and the new high energy dense, fast charging Lithium Ion batteries are portable energy alternatives to gasoline that can be produced in equivalent quantities to gasoline.

Coal and Nuclear energy can and will fill the gaps we get from the missing petroleum from the grid. We have enough coal for 200 years at present consumption. Nuclear will make a comeback, especially if we are to be doubling our national electrical output charging up all those cars and trucks.

There is much to be optimistic about, but I do not think that is why I am feeling more at ease. These alternatives hinge on one thing: that we get moving right now on developing the new infrastructure. It should be all too evident that this is not getting the attention it deserves. Very likely, the realization will come very late in the game. It will be rough on us climbing out of that hole, but climb out some portion of us will.

That, I think is partially were my burgeoning sense of ease lies. Primarily, however, the sense of control I am getting has come from my pushing my own envelope. I am realizing that I will survive this and probably bring a few along with me. Getting that Walton feed order was a big relief. Provided fire or an earthquake does not take the building in the near future, there will be food and there will be water. I am learning archery; in fact bought a good bow and arrows today. I have been playing with snares. I have been continuing my self-defense studies in earnest. I have been eating and exercising like our Paleolithic ancestors, and find that I am feeling quite healthy these days. Finally, by staying involved with my fellow humans via my volunteer work at the Emergency Department, I am able to keep a sense of connectedness with people in the midst of their own catastrophes.

There is something to be said for covering one’s bases, for planning for lean times, for practicing what one might do in a variety of emergencies. It makes you feel that you have at least a little control in an increasingly out of control world.

[update 7/10]
I am also feeling the urge to relax my bleating and feeling like less like a Cassandra as the notion of peak oil becomes more mainstream. In addition, I am seeing evidence that the ruling neocons’ tightly bound ball of yarn is beginning to unravel, and the little kittens that are doing the unraveling are the republican party itself and the long slumbering mainstream media . I love it, and like any true Cassandra, I knew it would happen all along.

A Tale of Two Wookiees

2005-07-02T19:15:00.000-07:00

(with much homage to the great George Lucas)

A tale of two wookies; a close approximation of the pronunciation of the acronym “TEOTWAWKI” a word that is cropping up more and more in the Peak Oil blogosphere. If you do not already know, it is short for The End of the World as We Know It. The word may conjure images of survivalistism and anarchy, because I think people have been focusing on the “End” part and not on the “as We Know it” part.

TEOTWAWKI is not the end of the world, only of the way we have come to know it. The death of a spouse, losing one’s job as well as severe climate or economic changes would qualify as TEOTWAWKI events.

What is important to remember that with preparation and practice these events are all survivable, if you so chose. I have been told on several occasions something on the order of, “I would rather die than try to have to figure out where I’m getting my next meal.” I think this is just laziness. It is too uncomfortable for people to imagine themselves in survival situations, so they just don’t think about it. I would be willing to bet, however, that should the grocery stores empty out, and the government food lines begin forming, they would chose to queue up with the rest of the town for their loaf, rather then die in their apartments.

Part of the process of surviving is just imagining our way through it. I think, not being caught completely by surprise, is paramount to avoiding the shell shock of finding out that your life has permanently changed. I remember a documentary I saw once about the Loma Prieta quake that occurred in the bay area in ’89. There was one young woman being interviewed a few weeks after it had occurred. She had an apartment in the Marina district which was pretty heavily hit and her apartment had been completely flattened. What got me was the look in her eyes and her listless affect; she could not get past everything she owned being destroyed. In her own words she had, “lost her identity.”

I am not trying to be unsympathetic, nor am I saying that we can imagine ourselves out of life and death situations. However, as a people, we are rather complacent and lack preparedness; we lack training.

I practice a Filipino martial art called Escrima Serrada. In Serrada, you learn two to three defenses against each of a variety of angles of attack. There are only so many directions from which an attacker would feasibly come at you, so in effect the defenses are few and can be learned in a short time. The real mastery comes from practicing regularly for years, to the point that when you see something coming at you from the attacker’s right hand, for instance, be it a fist, a broken bottle, a stick, you reflexively defend in the most appropriate manner. It is a thoughtless process. We ought to be practicing alternate ways of living too, not necessarily until they are reflexive, but at least until they are familiar.

How many of us could improvise a solar distiller? They are quite easy to make, and could save your life. What about a snare? You can easily get your dinner in the wild with a whittling knife and some heavy fishing line. Those are some extreme examples, but what would you do if the electricity was off for a week and the stores were empty of batteries – no flashlight; no radio. Well, there exists a wind-up radio and a flashlight that generates two hours of light if you shake it for a minute. Do you have these devices?

By taking the Boy Scout motto – ‘be prepared’ – seriously, the changes brought about by TEOTWAWKI might not challenge our very identity, but rather might actually be welcome.

Solar batteries

2005-06-30T17:04:00.000-07:00

Thanks to “anonymous” for the comments below and the DailyKos today for pointing out what seems to be a new development in storing solar energy more efficiently. The process uses concentrated sunlight and a carbon source to split zinc oxide into zinc and oxygen. With raw zinc, you can produce two useful products easily. When recombined with oxygen it will produce electricity and zinc oxide, which would be recycled into the initial process. On the other hand, when zinc is combined with water, the result is hydrogen gas and again, zinc oxide to be recycled.

Essentially, the Sun does the work to break a chemical bond, and we get to reap the energy reward of rejoining that chemical bond in one fashion or another. (Ultimately, this is how we came have so much petroleum laying around underground).

We could use this in large-scale electric power plants with coal as the carbon source, but any biomass would do. We could also use this in cars. Here is a Shanghai ad for taxis, scooters and busses already using the zinc-air battery technology which has been around since ‘97; so you see there is already a small infrastructure in place for this. Thirdly, hydrogen gas could be used in the production of ammonia for fertilizer (I know, how dare I suggest such a non-organic thing). In addition, hydrogen gas could be combined with carbon monoxide, one of the byproducts of the solar process, to produce methanol, an excellent fuel.

The author of the Ergosphere goes into much more detail. Here is a schematic of the process.

Excellent news!

Nuclear Fusion

2005-06-28T08:48:00.000-07:00

Finally they have chosen a country, France, to host ITER the first prototype FUSION reactor. Full scale electrical production may be far down the road but, what the hell, we're on the road.

For those of you that may not know, scientists have achieved small scale self-sustained hot fusion reactions, like what goes on in the sun, using the Tokamak model.

What has been holding up further development for years now was the bidding war among other things, among the six countries vieing to host the next, full scale research model. At least that part is over.

Biodiesel

2005-06-27T20:41:00.000-07:00

Biodiesel is a simple concept. Plants have oil in them. To get the oil out, you squeeze them. This oil, just like petroleum, is combustible and can be made to operate cars, lawnmowers and all the machinery we like in our 21^st-century western world, yes even those nasty Hummers. If we could get enough of this plant oil, we could say good-bye and best-of-luck to the Saudi’s and the air would be full of the smell of French fries and donuts.

Some of the pro’s from singer-turned- (plant) oil baron, Willie Nelson’s website:

Biodiesel reduces carbon dioxide exhaust emissions by up to 80%.
Biodiesel produces 100% less sulfur dioxide than petroleum based diesel, and sulfur dioxide is the major component of acid rain.
Biodiesel reduces exhaust smoke (particulates) emissions by up to 75% so the usual black cloud associated with a diesel engine can be eliminated.
Biodiesel is much less dangerous to put in a vehicles fuel tank as the flash point of biodiesel is ± 150°C (300°F) as opposed to petroleum diesel which is at ± 70°C (150°F).
Biodiesel degrades about 4 times faster than petroleum diesel after spillage, with most of a spill broken down after just 28 days.
Biodiesel provides significant lubricity improvement over petroleum diesel fuel so engines last longer, with the right additives engine performance can also be enhanced.
Biodiesel does not require any changes to the existing storage infrastructure so can be used in any tank or storage facility right away.
A diesel-engined vehicle does not need to be modified in anyway to use biodiesel.

So what’s the hold-up? The problem has been that, depending on the plant, it would take a crop size larger than the country in question to meet the energy needs of that country.

From the translated article by Olivier Danielo, An Algae-Based Fuel[pdf], in the French Biofutur, No.255/May 2005. “Marc Jancovici, an engineer specializing in greenhouse gas emissions, [said] it would require a sunflower field 118% the size of France to replace the 50Mtep of petroleum consumed each year by the French for their transportation needs (104% of the size of France for rapeseed, 120% for beet, 2700% for wheat).”; not very practical.

That is, unless you consider algae-based biodiesel. Some of the benefits of algae:

They grow fast; therefore have a much faster turnaround time compared with terrestrial plants. “It’s possible to complete an entire harvest in a few days..” (Danielo, p.2.)
Being unicellular, they have much more surface area exposure, allowing greater access to each cells’ juicy interior.
Floating in their nutrient bath of water, CO₂, minerals and sunlight, they are much more efficient than terrestrial plants at producing oil. In fact, these “…microscopic algae are capable according to NREL scientists (John Sheehan, et al), “of synthesizing 30 times more oil per hectare than the terrestrial plants used for the fabrication of biofuels.” (Danielo, p.2.)

So how much less land space would we need to replace all the oil we use in the U.S. with algae-based biodiesel? The U of NH Biodiesel website has a good summation:

“…to replace all transportation fuels in the US, we would need 140.8 billion gallons of biodiesel, or roughly 19 quads (one quad is roughly 7.5 billion gallons of biodiesel). To produce that amount would require a land mass of almost 15,000 square miles. To put that in perspective, consider that the Sonora desert in the southwestern US comprises 120,000 square miles. Enough biodiesel to replace all petroleum transportation fuels could be grown in 15,000 square miles, or roughly 12.5 percent of the area of the Sonora desert (note for clarification -I am not advocating putting 15,000 square miles of algae ponds in the Sonora desert. This hypothetical example is used strictly for the purpose of showing the scale of land required). That 15,000 square miles works out to roughly 9.5 million acres - far less than the 450 million acres currently used for crop farming in the US, and the over 500 million acres used as grazing land for farm animals.”

On the other hand, the arid regions of the country provide the sunlight needed for maximum algaeal growth and these lands are relatively impractical for any other use other than as a nature preserve. (Boy, that sounds exploitative doesn’t it?)

I will have more to say about this as I learn more. You know, it’s not that there are no options for us to overcome Peak Oil, it is just that, like Kunstler and others have been indicating, we need to move now. While petroleum is still relatively cheap, we can build the infrastructure for biodiesel manufacture and the host of alternative energies sources out there.

Rusted automobiles

2005-06-26T21:04:00.000-07:00

In all this Peak Oil hullabaloo, what has become clear to me is that the fabric of our particular civilization is woven from fibers that look alarmingly like interstate highways. Anything that inhibits our ability to get from point A to point B in the time and ease to which we have become accustomed, will cause great discomfort. Like it or not, we have crafted a way of life that requires the transportation of ourselves or the items we need for daily living across great distances.

The energy sources for heating and electricity will not be as severely affected by the Peak Oil phenomenon. Most of our electrical energy comes from coal (53%) and we have and plenty of it. From the EIA website, “Total recoverable reserves of coal around the world are estimated at 1,083 billion tons¹¹—enough to last approximately 210 years at current consumption.” I say unfortunately, because when push comes to shove, we will use coal - a dirty, environmentally destructive fuel - as if our lives depended on it. Coal will be made to fill many gaps that petroleum will no longer profitably fill, of that we can be sure. Let us just hope our environmental regulatory agencies are fully functional when that happens.

The Energy Information Administration site has a good breakdown of how the energy pie for the United States is sliced.

Electricity

For the electric power sector,

coal-fired plants accounted for 53% of generation,
nuclear 21%,
natural gas 15%,
hydroelectricity 7%,
oil 3%,
geothermal and "other" 1%.

Oil

The United States consumed an average of about 20.4 million bbl/d of oil during the first ten months of 2004, up from 20.0 million bbl/d in 2003.

Of this,

motor gasoline consumption was 9.0 million bbl/d (or 44% of the total),
distillate fuel oil consumption was 4.1 million bbl/d (20%),
jet fuel consumption was 1.6 million bbl/d (8%),
and residual fuel oil consumption was 0.8 million bbl/d (4%)l.

As you can see, 72% of the oil consumed was for transportation, therefore, the transportation sector will be the hardest hit by Peak Oil. I am no economist, but it makes sense that we will experience this as a kind of inflation. The price of everything we buy has its transportation cost embedded in the sticker. If gas prices go up, retail prices follow. If gas goes up dramatically, retail prices will too.

The devil is in the drama. A long gradual increase would give people time to adjust their lifestyles while sudden increases could be devastating. The pressures on the average tight budget household being hit by increased food prices and increased expense of the commute, may be too much for many to bear. The effect on businesses, all of which rely on transportation, particularly non-essential, dispensable income businesses, will be devastating. The lights will be on though.

Despite my dismal prognostications, I am actually feeling optimistic lately. I have been doing some reading on biodiesel. I had been hearing that the amount of biomass needed to produce enough biodiesel fuel to replace petroleum would be enormous – billions of acres - making it seem impractical. However, I came across a great article in the Energy Blog which is making me rethink this; biodiesel from algae. I will be focusing on biodiesel for a while because I want to understand it better and I am tired of thinking about how I will survive TEOTWAWKI. Do not worry though, I will surely have a great article to share soon about how to snare and prepare pigeons for dinner.

[UPDATE I: Armando at the DailyKos poses the question, "Why the hollywood box office slump?" There is a poll and hundreds of comments. Many of the commenters list 'increasing gas prices' as a primary reason for not going out to the movies. Have a look.]

[UPDATE II: Don't forget to take a look at the illustirous Jerome a Paris's segment, "Countdown to $100.00 Oil (3) - industry is beginning to suffer."

Independent World Television

2005-06-26T09:51:00.000-07:00

Watch the quicktime video. I just sent them $50.00.

98 Tons Of Plants Per Gallon

2005-06-23T20:56:00.000-07:00

I just read this fascinating article. I have always wondered how much of the original prehistoric plant life was needed to produce a barrel of oil or a gallon of gas. It seems that someone has figured it out - 98 tons of prehistoric plants per every gallon of gas. For imagination assistance, the flying machine in the above picture weighs 100 tons - unbelievable.

Also, from the article, the author"... calculated that the amount of fossil fuel burned in a single year – 1997 was used in the study – totals 97 million billion pounds of carbon, which is equivalent to more than 400 times 'all the plant matter that grows in the world in a year,' including vast amounts of microscopic plant life in the oceans

An interesting point is made at the end of the article in showing how much existing plant matter would have to be converted to replace the oil we burn up each year. It seems that “…we would need to harvest 22% of all land plants just to equal the fossil fuel energy used in 1997.”

Bad news for the biodiesel movement? Hmm, I don't know, it seems that there are some new developments on the horizon. Stay tuned...

Cushioning

2005-06-20T20:32:00.000-07:00

To the rare traveler that has actually asked my advice on how to live, I have always mentioned two things; #1: live as simply as possible and #2: build up a minimum three month financial cushion. This axiom has stood me well over the past ten years since I became more reality based. It is the very reason that I can afford these two years of marginal employment while I get through the CCSF Nursing program. Picking up the thread I was unspooling the other day, I would add a third rule: #3 store up three months minimum of water and nonperishable food.

We are a week’s worth of groceries away from starvation. Living in towns on the eastern seaboard, I know first hand what even the rumor of a storm can do to a grocery store. Even so, out there in hurricane alley as well as here in earthquake, fire, flood, mudslide prone California, we do not think about putting food and water in storage except tokenly. I have a friend who has a gallon of water in the back of her closet. “What’s that for?” I had once asked, “Oh, that’s for emergencies.” One gallon. The body’s minimum daily requirement is a half a gallon.

This is not just a Peak Oil issue. When I first came to San Francisco seven years ago, I listened with fascination to the stories of those who lived here during the Loma Prieta quake of ‘89. Apparently, there was no electricity or gas for cooking for several days; it could have easily been longer. If the disaster is large in terms of geography or time, it might be weeks before help arrives and in the case of global disaster, help may never come.

The following accounts are reprinted from the Walton Feed website and portray what I am trying to say fairly well:

“…from the preface to Ms. Geri Guidetti's book, Build Your Ark! Book 1; Food Self Sufficiency, where she experienced first hand the "Blizzard of 96" on the East Coast. MS Guidetti is the founder of The Ark Institute.

...The bread, milk and snack aisles of all the local grocery stores are empty. All of the other food aisles are decimated... Ground travel is paralyzed...

Day 3, post blizzard: [There are] fights for a shipment of milk from a local dairy. Stores... have reportedly hired armed guards...

Day 5: I stood with a shopping cart in aisle after aisle, watching and listening to folks' reactions to depleted stocks...

Woman: "No bread... I can't believe there's no bread." Store Manager: "Well, Ma'am, we're sorry, but the delivery trucks can't get through. But we do have flour left to make bread." Woman: "Oh...is that how they make it...flour? But I don't do that."

Man: "I can live without everything else, but I can't live without my chips." ...[He] removed every bag off the shelf into his cart as I watched.

Another woman: "What do you mean you don't have dinner rolls? I don't want bread, I don't want milk...all I want is my dinner rolls. It's the only kind of bread I'll eat."

Man: "No milk!! What am I supposed to tell my kids? They live on milk." Store manager: "Well, Sir, we're sorry, but there are a few boxes of powdered milk left over here." Man: ..."What do you do with that?"

Angry woman: "But you have to have Kellogg's Raisin Bran; it's on sale this week. Don't you honor your sales?"

Woman looking scared: "I can't believe this! Look how they're pushing at each other. People are like animals!"...

Other images of Americans faced with a sudden loss of food and water are still vivid after several years. Just hours after the Northridge Quake in Southern California a few years ago, a television reporter and cameraman for a national news network... were summoned by the owner of a neat little suburban home that was now without power. With his two little children in tow, the man gestured toward his refrigerator. "Look, look!" Inside, the camera focused on ...three cans of Coke. "This is all we have, and they're warm `cause of the power outage. We always go to the store for dinner, and now the stores are closed. What are we gonna do? Somebody has to help us. Tell the President!"

I found myself flooded with questions. Why on earth would parents of two young children, people living in earthquake-prone Southern California, keep no food in their home? ...Do they really believe that their government will always be capable of responding instantaneously to a natural or manmade disaster ...to save them?

What if the devastation was so enormous that government and disaster relief agencies were too overwhelmed to respond effectively? We have already seen this happen when Hurricane Andrew leveled whole counties in Florida. I'll never forget the angry woman shouting at a television reporter, "Where's George Bush?? We're starving down here!"...

The three month minimum cushion gives you room to think. It keeps you from being one of those people in the above story. It gives you a chance to implement plans B, C and D (which we will be covering in future chapters). It is not a solution in itself, any more than having a financial cushion could liberate you from ever having to work again (unless of course, that cushion is at least a million bucks and you are near retirement age; that’s a horse of a different color.)

The reason I walk

2005-06-19T11:58:00.000-07:00

[cross-posted from 'On A Personal Note...']

This is a nice summation of the premise behind the Paleolithic diet.

“From the emergence of the genus Homo, over 2 million years ago (MYA), until the agricultural revolution of roughly 10000 years ago our ancestors were hunter-gatherers, so the adaptive pressures inherent in that environmental niche have exerted defining influence on human genetic makeup. The portion of our genome that determines basic anatomy and physiology has remained relatively unchanged over the past 40 000 years. Thus, the complex interrelationship between energy intake, energy expenditure and specific physical activity requirements for current humans remains very similar to that originally selected for Stone Age men and women who lived by gathering and hunting.”

[From the abstract : Cordain, L., Gotshall, R.W. and Eaton, S.B. Physical activity, energy expenditure and fitness: an evolutionary perspective. International Journal of Sports Medicine 1998; 19:328-335] [PDF to entire study]

Over the millennia, our crafty little monkey ways have lead to more and more inventions, techniques and access to resources which have made our lives “easier.” The authors of this article, renowned for their work in this field, do not go into the reasons that food became ever more abundant to us with little personal effort to produce it. However, it is my contention (and that of others) that the advent of cheap and easily transmuted fossil fuels have allowed us to achieve this state. My primary motivation for exploring these primitive ways, the ways we were designed to live, is my lack of trust in the sustainability of this ‘way of life’; these fuels are running out.

But on the subject of walking, and Paleolithic exercise in general, the authors point out, “Overall, the Paleolithic rhythm involves days of fairly intense physical exertion which alternate with days of rest and light activity..” But how much physical exertion? In our modern world, “… physical activity for most people has become an extraordinary activity largely separate from other daily tasks and engaged in specifically to improve fitness variable such as endurance, strength and or flexibility.”

The activity per day guidelines recommended by the American College of Sports Medicine are, “participating in physical activity 3-5 days/week, at 50-85% maximum intensity, continuously for 20-60 minutes” along with “accumulating 30 minutes of physical activity over most days of the week…” However, when compared with the activity levels of the modern day hunter-gatherers, the Ache, !Kung, Agta, Hadza and Inuit, these guidelines fall far short, for their daily activity levels are much higher.

Evidence gained by observation of these modern hunter-gatherers, suggests that we were meant to walk as much as nine miles a day, along with the fairly strenuous daily activities of the community. This is significant. For millions of years our closely related families of primates and even modern hunter-gatherers have had to walk a long way nearly every day to get something to eat. We are programmed to burn off far more calories each day then any of us in the west would ever dream of burning, even the athletes among us.

The difficulty with fitting this level of activity into our lives is not in retraining ourselves. In fact, what I have noticed is that one can quickly become conditioned to walking. After two weeks, eight miles does not strain me any more than three. What can become problematic is the amount of time it takes to do this. Three and a half hours of walking, the equivalent of ten miles at three miles an hour, is not a lot of time, unless you are committing yourself to doing it every day. Three and a half miles, six days a week, is 21 hours; that is a part time job. If it were not for my being marginally employed this summer, I do not know if I would have had the energy to do all this.

Nevertheless, I will continue at least until the new semester begins. The answer to regaining the balance may lie in increasing activity level in combination with intentional calorie reduction. Hmm, that sounds like most modern diet plans.

Oil pushing $60.00 a barrel

2005-06-18T08:59:00.000-07:00

Interesting and informative comments from a Dkos diary by sipples pointing this out this morning.

Merlin Farms

2005-06-16T10:29:00.000-07:00

(from the movie Excalibur)

Well, it is done. I placed my order with Walton Feed today for the basic one person- one year supply of emergency food and two empty 55-gallon water drums. So am I turning into some loony Ted Kaczynski type? Maybe. Somehow, though, I feel a bit liberated. I feel like I took a stand and put my money where my mouth is (literally). I feel like I would have made my grandparents proud. I feel like, in my own small way, I am beginning to return to what was a way of life only just a few generations back. Sadly, at this point two full generations of us have only heard of the Great Depression, so stable have our lives been. A line from the movie Excalibur, spoken by Merlin the Magician, always comes back to me - “…it is the doom of man that they forget.”

The entire premise of the 20,000-year Agricultural age was to grow things during the season and put them in storage for the off-season or for hard times. We have lost that way of thinking. We have allowed the perpetual abundance of the grocery shelves to lull us into complacency. Grocery stores only have about three days to one week of food inventory on their shelves if they are run well. In fact, all the way up the line, through distributors, warehouses and manufacturers it makes sound fiscal sense to let the next person up the line hold most of the inventory while you carry as little as possible.

Today I have broken that rule, and honored those that lived through the Great Depression by ‘putting up’ one years worth of food for one person, or three months for three or four people. (Sorry, San Franciscans, I already have these folks picked out and they have never heard of an ‘internet’). What did I get for my money? Just the basics; 600 pounds of wheat berries, beans, rice, powdered milk, corn, sugar, yeast and salt, all packed in 13-six gallon buckets with oxygen absorbers inside; oh yes, and a manual grain grinder. The life expectancy on this food is between ten and fifteen years and I hope I never have to crack a lid. I hope I wasted my money. We will see.

I have nothing on many of those out there already living the alternative back to the land life. Near to where my folks live, near the ocean in Southern New Jersey, there is a little organic farm. On this farm is a large electricity generating wind mill, big water storage containers out back, and solar heating panels on the south side of an old house. The sign out front says, “Organic Produce for sale.” That is the goal; my goal at least.

For now, I live in a studio apartment in San Francisco only a few miles from downtown, and for the next few years, it will be here that I make my stand. I will buy my emergency rations from wherever I can, rather than grow, can/dehydrate and store them. That will suffice. Being the building manager here, I have access to a few storage areas, but even if I were not, it would all fit in this studio, including the water drums. They would make for great conversation pieces don’t you think?

Interview with J.H. Kunstler

2005-06-13T11:57:00.000-07:00

For you Long Emergency fans, here is a recent interview with the author.

Saving thine ass.

2005-06-13T10:11:00.000-07:00

The theme of this site is obviously Peak Oil but more to the point it is how we can cope with its effects. The way I see it, it could pan out in two different ways. The more optimistic yet still painful scenario is, that there are regional shortages, and more of a slow crash, as Ran Prieur, wrote in his essay. In this case, there is time to adjust, again painfully, to a severely restricted and conservative lifestyle as compared with the one we have now. Furthermore, remember that this country is the Saudi Arabia of coal, and that there are ways to turn this substance into liquid fuel. The process is expensive and environmentally destructive but if people want it, then by God the people will have it; damn the environment, full speed ahead!

Obviously recovering with some modicum of our present lifestyle is appealing. I recently had a friend tell me that she thought I wanted the world to end. Truthfully, there was a time that his was true. I have always been disgusted with the western world’s hyperconsumerism, and lack of attention span and sense of stewardship of the Earth; “Let it all crash and burn,” I said. Today, though, when faced with this potential calamity, I am less sure. To witness the deaths of those I love to starvation is not what I had in mind. Also, as I have gotten older, I don’t feel so angry. I guess I’m feeling a little more compassion. When I let my guard down, it is easy to see an ad for a car and think, “Hmm, now that is a sexy car, I’d like to own that,” or simply to know that at the end of my life, I will still be able to walk down to the convenience store and get a can of soup.

If people like Kunstler are wrong, and we are able to pull ourselves out of this pathological dependence on petroleum for damned near everything in our lives, then great. To try to predict how this would happen would be impossible but interesting; there are so many combinations of variables. As you can see from the bloggroll over here, there are many of us tying to predict the future.

If Kunstler and others are correct and there is a catastrophic collapse, then there are some definite things that we can do right now, within our own lives, to prepare and be among the survivors. I wrote a few weeks back about how even survivalists lose in the end, because when their rations run out, they will be like everyone else, starving. A well-stocked survivalist retreat works well in a regional disaster on the theory that there would be assistance from the outside world and eventually a restoration of order and former ways of life. No one would be coming to the rescue in a global disaster; we would be on our own.

That said, does that make the survivalist retreat idea wrong? No. Having several months of provisions, especially food, set aside is no different from having six months of mortgage or rent in the bank in case of lay-off. It only makes sound fiscal sense. It is a stopgap solution, but it would give you an edge. You could feed yourself and your family while you figure out the next step. It is my intention to do this personally, and hopefully, be an example to my small audience. First stop: Walton Feed, Inc.

Energy conversion

2005-06-11T20:26:00.000-07:00

Did you know that it takes 14 liters (3.5 gallons more or less) of liquid hydrogen to equal the energy in one gallon of gasoline? So much for it being an alternative fuel. However, biodiesel and gasoline are about the same energywise. How do I know this? Why, with this nifty little energy conversion calculator.

On second thought, take a look at the rest of this site, they are using focused sunlight to liberate hydrogen gas from water....I like the sound of that. And furthermore, evidence indicates that it was the skin of the Hindenberg that was the most flamable thing, the hydrogen gas inside only assisted the burn. So there.

Paleo Experiment - Day 2

2005-06-11T19:50:00.000-07:00

Paleolithic diet

2005-06-10T09:40:00.000-07:00

I am going to begin an experiment. My studies In the Peak Oil phenomenon, like many of us willing to think about it, have lead me to contemplate what it would be like to experience a complete collapse of everything; economic, societal, food distribution etc. What would it be like to suddenly find ourselves existing, in not only a pre-industrial world, but even a pre-agricultural world. This is how we lived, anthropologists and others, say for 99% of our existence as a species.

This curiosity, combined with the end of semester/vacation excesses, weight gain, lethargy etc are compelling me to find out the effects of applying a Paleolithic diet and activity level.

I know I am being extremely vague, but I am figuring this out as I go along. I have taken the before photos and will be tracking various biomarkers over the next ten weeks before the new semester begins.

Today I will eat what you see in the above photo and will walk about five miles. On the theory that Paleolithic people walked a lot, my daily walking goal will eventually be ten miles, with spurts of upwards of twenty. If I need it, I am also going to allow myself one day a week to follow the ‘normal-early 21^st century-urban-American man diet (minus the booze).

In addition, since this is only marginally about Peak Oil, I am going to create yet another blogsite to chronicle this experiment and will post a daily invitation over here at Gone to Croatoan.

BON APPÉTIT

Sister site

2005-06-08T18:14:00.000-07:00

I am starting a sister site to handle the overwhelming number of links to great articles and information concerning Peak Oil. I'm gonna call it Post Petroleum Clearinghouse

About the DailyKos

2005-06-08T14:34:00.000-07:00

Aside from the fact that the DailyKos is a premier liberal blogsite, what makes it so dynamic is the sheer volume of readers and posters that visit every day. With many a ‘we’re not worthy!’ bows to the talented Markos Moulitsas, the site’s founder, much of this phenomenon originates from beyond his efforts. By opening the front page to all who want to post a diary or a comment, the Daily Kos allows anyone to express themselves to a wide audience. This means that on well-viewed diaries, you are likely to see several hundred comments, some silly, but many that will provide an alternative viewpoint, or further information. Some 'Kossacks’ have even become collaborative and have been quite helpful, for instance, in the ongoing investigation of Jeff Gannon/Guckert - the homosexually inclined fake reporter and escort of an, as yet unnamed, high ranking member of the Bush Cabinet(IMHO). This volume has created brand recognition that some well-known left-minded politicians are coming to appreciate; Sen. Barbara Boxer, Rep. John Conyers and Rep Louise Slaughter regularly post diaries and yesterday we saw Senator Edward Kennedy post a dairy on the Downing Street Memo.

Because of its volume, the DailyKos bleeds into areas beyond politics and to areas where Mr. Moulitsas himself, is not necessarily interested. ‘Have at it,’ he says, ‘Write your own diary or even start your own blog.’ Springing from the DailyKos is a collaborative political encyclopedia and a page devoted to restoring democracy to the house. Many of the more prolific diarists have gone on to create their own sites.
(Booman Tribune, Liberal Streetfighter, The Next Hurrah, Steve Gilliard, Bilmon)

Among the many categories at the DailyKos is the category of ‘energy’, which collects and preserves the various diaries pertaining to the Peak Oil phenomenon and alternate energy posted to the site before they vanish from the screen. It is here that you will often find me when I start day.

I'm back, I'm back..

2005-06-08T10:51:00.000-07:00

It's a rainy day today in the City. Today I will be tweaking the blog template a bit and creating a few other blogs as well.

It's a bona fide addiction.

Somewhere, near the Adirondacks...

2005-05-31T07:53:00.000-07:00

I'm taking a break.

On Kunstler's Long Emergency

2005-05-27T12:42:00.000-07:00

So we’ve got the idea.

1. Our western ‘way of life’, is based on cheap and abundant oil, even if like me, you don’t own a car.
2. Oil is a limited resource that is increasingly in demand, yet quickly diminishing in supply.
3. Current efforts to fill the gap with alternative energy sources are sporadic at best.
4. Putting the above three points together, the world, as we know it, is going to change within our lifetimes.

The underlying question and insecurity of all the Peak Oil books, blogsites, websites and articles is not “if” this will occur, but “how” and “to what degree.”

Salon recently conducted an interview with James Howard Kunstler, author of the book, “The Long Emergency.” If you don’t know about Kunstler, read the Rolling Stone article that synopsizes the book. This is the article that set me off and inspired me to begin this blog. In the interview Kunstler spells out our dour future, but he is more in favor of the idea that this event will unfold gradually.

“What we're talking about is the process of heading down the arch of depletion, not the catastrophic cutoff of oil”

Also, like me, he is an optimist about our survival as a race.

…“Kunstler believes the human race will survive as we slip down the other side of Hubbert's Oil Peak. But the high standard of living we've built by gorging on cheap oil will not. America, as a political entity, will be history too.”

As if it were not already self-evident, my studies in medicine point to the fact that most of what we see in hospitals, doctors offices and clinics are diseases of excess. One of the upsides of a decline in our ‘way of life’ is that the diseases – diabetes, obesity, hypertension, cardiovascular, lung , gastro-intestinal etc - will also decline. If we are indeed literally toiling in the fields for our daily bread, we are not likely to be obese. Lack of access to the candy-iced cream-sweetened cereal-soda isle in the now abandoned grocery store will go a long way toward ‘curing’ diabetes.

Kunstler has additional insight on how our imminent fall, in a backhanded sort of way, will be for our own good.

“American life will be much more about staying where you are than about ceaseless and endless and pointless mobility.
And that will resonate. We're afflicted by so many places that are simply not worth caring about anymore. This is having a tremendous effect on us. It's corroding our spirits. And, if pressed, I would have to say that it's led directly to the idea that it's possible to get something for nothing and if you wish upon a star your dreams come true. “

I will miss a lot of the convenience and abundance our way of life has offered me, such as flicking on a light switch, going out to the movies, restaurants and hot showers. I will miss flying in an airplane. (As I write this, I am on a plane going 650 miles an hour, flying at 33,000 feet - amazing). However, much of what is out there is over-rated and frankly has done, to us and our world, more harm than good. To these things I say, “Good riddance.”

(image courtesy of www.intellexual.net)

Do you feel a draft?

2005-05-25T11:01:00.000-07:00

[Finals are over and that party was a bender; I hope there is no video evidence]
Check out the great article posted on the Daily Kos today about large scale wind power.

(image courtesy of www.coenergy.info)

Be Prepared

2005-05-18T10:43:00.000-07:00

I have been asked recently concerning the doomy and gloomy prospects for our future and my tack on it, “Why so extreme Mike?” While people seem to acknowledge that we have been living excessively, as a rule they think the most we will notice, in the inevitable depletion of oil, will be a gradual reduction in our standard of living with time to adjust. “Sure, riding in cars will be more of a luxury activity, but I will still be able to get to work; public transportation will pick up the slack.” I only hope it turns out that way.

I recently went to the Mission district and spoke with a pawnshop owner, a large bearded backwoods looking fellow. I was shopping for a good knife and I thought for sure this man knew a thing or two about survival, so I brought up Peak Oil. As I conjured up the anarchistic scenarios, he laughed in that ‘I’ve-heard-it-all-before’ way, and said, “Look, when it becomes too expensive to use oil we’ll switch to something else; we could go solar anytime we want, and as for cars, we’ll just switch to hydrogen.” My hopes for getting good advice from Grizzly Adams were dashed.

We cannot go solar anytime we want, and hydrogen comes from natural gas (like petroleum, a limited supply) or by electrolysis, an electrical process (where does the electricity come from?) Transiting into any alternative mode of energy production is going to take time and effort with binoculars on the long-term. The current powers-that-be are clearly not interested in the long term. As Jerome a Paris points out today, if there is little incentive to invest in the basic maintenance of the infrastructure that we depend on so heavily, is there going to be any momentum toward such visionary projects as the solarizing or wind-turbining of America?

I would love nothing more that to be on a beach in Hawaii twenty years from now with my friends all laughing at me. “Hey Mike,” they will say, “Why don’t you go catch me a fish with your homemade lure?” “Oh, and while you’re at it, see if there is a tasty grub under that log over there.” There will be laughs and drinks all around (on me, I promise) as they recall my days of survivalistic paranoia. In that day-dreamy future, the fact that I am in Hawaii implies that the aviation industry still exists and is usable by the common person. By extension, other fuel dependant industries must still exist. That I have time to be leisurely implies that I have a job and I have saved a little money to blow extravagantly. I could live with that alternative future.

What I am about these days is for being prepared. If we are prepared for the worst, and it turns out that we were extreme in our predictions, then we will take our ribbing at some future beach party. However, should the fan be hit by that dark and smelly substance, we will be ready, calm and wearing a raincoat.

[Soon to come: Note to my fellow nursing students and To stash or not to stash]

(photos courtesy of http://www.bradthegame.com and http://www.kingshepherd.com/)

Family

2005-05-16T19:57:00.000-07:00

In line with my emerging thesis that we are soon to return to our roots, there is an excellent post on the Kos today by DarkSyde regarding our ancestral origins. Check it out. Gastro-Intestinal Exam tomorrow!

Stand by

2005-05-13T17:40:00.000-07:00

Please stand-by while I study for finals, because, here at City College, time stretches on and on and finals week lasts for months, sometimes years...

New Age Lemons

2005-05-11T21:06:00.000-07:00

I spoke with a friend recently about Peak Oil. As I was bringing up the facts and figures in support of it, she cut me off and said, “Look, I’m okay with dying.” The statement effectively ended the conversation but I wondered how many others out there had similar feelings.

I’m not ok with dying. My friend was coming from the point of view that spirit is immortal and why not drop the body when it gets to be too much? It is a sentiment I understand because she and I came from the same New Age school of logic; reincarnation, white light, angels etc. It may all be true, although as I drift closer to Zen Buddhism with the passing years, I am less inclined to believe so. Regardless, there are appropriate times to ‘drop the body’; theists and atheists alike will shout, “Let me go!” after a few months of bone metastasis. Peak Oil, however, is not bone metastasis.

For me, this desire to live comes from seeing this event as a daunting yet interesting puzzle to be solved. Peak Oil is a threat, no (non-metastasized) bones about it. It is a threat to the way we have lived for at least a few generations, and because of this generational complacency, it is a threat to our very lives. That being true, we can still meet this challenge; certainly a few hundred million of the willing.

The evidence is compelling that four of the six billion people currently on the planet are here only through the magic of cheap energy. Time for an analogy. We have all looked into the depths of our refrigerator and spotted the forgotten lemon way in the back and said, “I have to use that soon,” and then days later, noticing the green cast on the rind said, “I have to get rid of that soon.” The mold penicillium digitatum, had wandered into a cheap and easily accessible energy source, a lemon rind. Its peak population quickly became billions or trillions of times the size of the original inoculation set, but its days were numbered. Soon the entire rind was spongy and the lemon began to dehydrate. Before too much longer, what remained of the lemon is a dry and dusty little ball. Did any of those active spores know that the end was near? Hell no, they were in full party mode when the rind supply ran out, and when it did, they died-off. ‘Die-off’ is a commonplace occurrence in the bacteriological, plant and animal kingdoms. It is what Thomas Malthus was hinting at 200 years ago. It is so common that many microscopic organisms (including mold) have evolved endosporulation, a process whereby they put themselves into hibernation, until the next big lemon rind comes along. We are in the same boat folks, our lemon rind is running out but we do not have the luxury of hibernation.

Rather than be spores that are ‘okay with dying,’ I am proposing that we figure a way to drift from lemon to lemon; that we survive. How, you ask? Well, that is going to be a discovery process with me a blogging, mold-spore guinea pig. My ideas have to do with primitivism, so if you were hoping for me to gradually reveal plans for a free energy device that would ensure that our way of life would go on and on, I'm sorry. There are quite a few free energy sites already out there.

Here we go!

2005-05-11T03:15:00.000-07:00

It seems that, even as we sit here drinking our coffee, Opec can no longer meet world demand, even at full capacity. By the way, while you were sleeping, a new Axis of Energy began forming to consolidate what oil does remain and, would you look at that, the United States was not included. Don't worry though, everything is under control. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Both of these stories are diaried at the Daily Kos by our friends, Jerome a Paris and Spiderleaf. Take a look.

Real Security

2005-05-09T07:38:00.000-07:00

In the face of any disaster scenario, of what are we afraid? The first thing that comes to mind is the safety of those we love. Here in San Francisco, in the back of everyone’s mind lurks the question, “when is the next quake coming?” In truth though, San Franciscans do not spend very much time thinking about it. (Hmm, that would make an interesting diary on collective denial). After the safety of loved ones and ourselves, let’s face it, we are afraid of losing our things and perhaps the niche in society we have made for ourselves. The more stuff and status we have, the more we have to lose. The vagabond friend crashing on your couch has nothing to lose but his backpack when the quake takes your house. He will say something like, “Whoa, dude. Sorry about your house,” and be off to Seattle. You will have lost the fruits of many years of hard work. You will likely have to find a new neighborhood to live in. If your place of work was destroyed, you will find yourself hunting for a new job. Paradoxically, it seems the more affluent we are, the more disaster has the ability to claim us. Moreover, what is the pursuit of affluence about anyway? Aside from the societal jockeying-for-position aspect, is it not about creating a cushion of security?

In 1971, Marshall Sahlins wrote an excellent essay on the meaning of affluence. Here is one excerpt. [Emphasis mine]

“There are two possible courses to affluence. Wants may be "easily satisfied" either by producing much or desiring little. The familiar conception, the Galbraithean way- based on the concept of market economies- states that man's wants are great, not to say infinite, whereas his means are limited, although they can be improved. Thus, the gap between means and ends can be narrowed by industrial productivity, at least to the point that "urgent goods" become plentiful. But there is also a Zen road to affluence, which states that human material wants are finite and few, and technical means unchanging but on the whole adequate. Adopting the Zen strategy, a people can enjoy an unparalleled material plenty - with a low standard of living.”

Later, he says of our hunter-gatherer ancestors and present day cousins...

“a pristine affluence colours their economic arrangements, a trust in the abundance of nature's resources rather than despair at the inadequacy of human means.”

We can be secure without being affluent. There is much that we can work with using our own bare hands. What is this sense of security we can develop for ourselves that would survive any disaster; where we could lose everything and fear not about starting fresh? I think it is in cultivating skills, specifically, basic skills, that we can gain this sense of security. Learning how to build a canoe, or a bow, or solar water condenser may have no practical value today, but having taught yourself how to make them, imparts a sense of well being, a sense that, “Yeah. If I ever need this, I know how to make it.” I am student of a Filipino martial art known as Escrima Serrada . It is a very practical form of hand-to-hand self-defense. Will I ever need it? Maybe not, but I know that against the average mugger, I will fair very well. That skill gives me a sense of security that the affluent have to pay dearly for in the form of bodyguards.

With the potential chaos ahead, defend yourself by learning a skill. Learn how to fish, especially with a homemade fishing pole. When you get that fish, learn how clean it. Then prepare it and have it for dinner. Learn what edible herbs live within your area and then go find them and eat them. You will sleep well. You will be proud of yourself, even if you make six figures at your day job.

Enjoy the Ride

2005-05-08T07:43:00.000-07:00

How do you bridge two worlds? I was reflecting on my prior diary (in the ‘blogosphere’, one’s essays, articles and other musings are often called diaries). I have been thinking lately of the things that we have given ourselves through our civilization. The ability for the common (U.S.) person to leave San Francisco and be in New York in time for dinner is astounding. To think that millions travel a daily distance, to and from work, that would take the better part of the day on horseback. They do it while eating breakfast, talking on the phone, putting on make-up, sometimes even while reading. They expend as many calories doing it as they would watching a sunset. I have a bunch of organically grown bananas on my table with a label from Ecuador on them. Ecuador! It is 5:00 am and my apartment is as bright as noon. It is an amazing and wonderful dream that I do not want to end.

My blogmate, Ran Prieur over on his own website, is preparing in his own way for the transition to a petroleum free world and I note that he is also feeling a sense of loss.
Says Ran...

“Is survival worth it? Do I really want to live another 50 years hanging out with the same people on the same piece of land, without ever again listening to Hawkwind's PXR5 album or eating chocolate ice cream or watching Brazil or walking down the sidewalk on a warm summer day surrounded by faces I've never seen before and hearing an old Boston song blasting from a passing convertible? Of course, my kids won't miss that stuff, and they'll get even deeper pleasure from immersion in reality, or "nature." But I'll miss that too, because it's alien to what I grew up in. I'll be an immigrant to the future, with one foot in each world, but belonging to neither.”

I was getting a ride home from school the other day from a fellow nursing student. She has a sweet little BMW convertible like the one above and I remarked about what a nice garden planter it will make when there is no more gas, of course after we remove the tires for cooking fuel and pull the alternator and belts for the homemade windmill. We laughed and I relaxed into the ride.

We should enjoy this. We should enjoy the toys we have while we have them, yet periodically practice roughing it. Take that luxury cruise, and then when you get home, try washing your clothes by hand. Go ahead and buy that plasma screen TV, then one night, shut off the electricity and read stories to your children by candle light.

If Kubler-Ross’s stages of grief can be overlaid onto all of life’s disappointments and not just death, then I have definitely entered the ‘acceptance’ stage. I am okay with what lies ahead. Complacent, however, I am not; among my summer projects - making a solar furnace and a bow and arrow by hand.

Conservation and Deaquisition

2005-05-06T19:21:00.000-07:00

I am a nursing student and a few months back, before I discovered that my career might be short lived, my dad and I were discussing what I would do with my newfound wealth. The fabled starting salaries of nurses in San Francisco to me are staggering. After all, I have learned to live on $20,000 a year and that includes rent. Dad jokingly suggested that I buy a house in the Berkeley hills and I confessed that I would like to try, for one year at least, renting a flat on the top floor of some downtown high-rise. Toss in a lease on a Jag or some other extravagant vehicle, fine restaurants, frequent vacations - ah, the dreams of avarice. Whatever happened to the young man who grew his own sprouts and was proud of his large compost pile? Wasn’t he into French intensive gardening, solar power and recycling. Seems he’s been asleep.

What does it mean to conserve? This definition is from a website aimed at residential water conservation in Arizona and serves as well as any:

“Conservation is the management of resources such as water so as to eliminate waste or maximize efficiency of use. A related and complementary concept is sustainability. Activities are sustainable if they can be maintained over time without depleting the natural resource base….”

I remember a man named John Anderson running for President as an independent between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in 1980. He proposed a “conservation ethic” to deal with our energy woes, which appealed to my compost pile/solar panel mindset of the time. Do we need to revive the idea of a conservation ethic?

In relation to petroleum, the obvious flaw in the above definition of conservation is in the words, “sustainability” and “maintained.” The supply of petroleum can never be sustained or maintained; it was always destined to vanish. These past thirty years since Reagan dismantled Carter’s energy reforms, conservation could have been used to jumpstart alternative energies. Wind, oceanic, solar and even nuclear alternatives could have been brought up to a level to where we would no longer need oil (at least for our energy needs). It seems to me that, at this point, conservation is really just a palliative measure, tapping the brakes as we head over the edge like Thelma and Louise.

I have an addendum to the definition: conservation - the practice of 'deaquisition.' In contrast to the practice of acquiring things, as our western culture has honed to a fine edge, I propose developing the art of letting things go – deaquisition. We will in the near future, likely be forced to do without. By practicing deaquisition, the psychological blow will be lessened. Why not spend a day or two in your house with the electricity off? (Remember to empty your refrigerator first). What is it like not having a refrigerator? What do you do when the sun sets? What is it like not having a TV on for three days? I have had no TV for nine months now. I remain current and well connected via the internet. Hmmm, that would be a stretch for me - no internet.

I will detail this more in the future but I am just thinking, would you rather be pushed off the top of a four-story building or be given the option to walk down the stairs?

Jimmy Carter al la Jerome

2005-05-05T05:34:00.000-07:00

Here's a fellow I would like to meet. Jerome a Paris is a frequent contributor over at the Daily Kos. He is one of the resident energy experts there. Today he paid a little tribute to Jimmy Carter who I have always thought was a visionary president.

Says Jerome...
"This is a President who has vision, who has the best interests of his country and of ALL his citizens in mind, who has ambitious goals and did not shy from asking for all to contribute to them. In essence, he was launching a "Manhattan Project" for energy (and that was after having already created the Strategic Oil reserve, launched house insulation efforts, kickstarted solar energy development, and reinforced CAFE standards). He said it would require efforts and sacrifices from all, but that it would be worth it in terms of efficiency, quality of living and jobs - and freedom."

This, however, is not a visionary President.

It would be incredibly easy, and oh so cathartic, to wax political on this blog. There is so much material out there that I would have to quit school just to get out the details of the abject corruption that permeates this administration. I’ll leave it to my fellow Kossacks over at the aforementioned Daily Kos.

One of the things I have come to see is that we cannot fully blame Shrub and his ilk for the impending energy disaster. We were always going to run out of oil someday. A case could be made for the 30 wasted years post Carter having sped the process up significantly. Surely, the sight of the President of the United States holding hands with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah does not inspire confidence. Yeah, right, I’m sure we're looking at alternative energy sources.

Whatever.

We really need to blame ourselves, and we need to hand the blame back several generations. We should never have become so complacent.

Mission Statement

2005-05-04T18:33:00.000-07:00

This is an exploratory process for me. Originally, this blog was to be a web-based way for me to collect my observations and my experiments with living beyond the peak; an online diary for me to refer to. In the end, it may remain only that, because I am not going to be giving people any more than just one invitation to read, and the list will be rather short.

To me, the bread and butter issue with Peak Oil is largely that - food. When you realize how our food gets to us and how utterly dependant we are on petroleum to make and deliver this food, you can see what fools we have been to allow ourselves to be so dependent on a hopelessly limited resource. Oil permeates our lives like our little friend above, a victim of the Exxon Valdez. I will not be going into an exhaustive treatise into the evidence for Peak Oil, its short and long range effects. Others, more capable than myself, are already doing that well. I will post links on the front page as I come across them or provide links within my own articles.

A month or so went by after the epiphany of our demise (salvation?); a month, for me, of survivalistic foment. It was difficult. I am sure my grades in school experienced a temporary dip as I tried to rewire myself. Before long, I realized that we have had the answer in front of us all the time. It is my contention that we will be saved, on many fronts, by embracing our Paleolithic roots. We have lived this way for so long, it is what we are. The whole flirtation with a cheap and abundant energy source like oil was, unfortunately, just that, a flirtation - 100 years out of one million; unfortunate, because I still have dreams of the stars.

We could represent the past million years of our human existence in length, let’s say 10 meters. In terms of football field length, that is a little more than from the goal post to the 30-yard line. Look down the field to that line and now look down at your toes. Four days of fresh toenail growth of the big toe would arguably amount to one millimeter. This represents the effective length of the industrial revolution, that little piece of toenail.... It really has not been that long a time.

I also submit that humankind will run the entire length of the field. There is no doubt. Will your genes be part of that mix?

A Fred or George Future?

2005-05-03T18:06:00.000-07:00

Don't get me wrong, this is the kind of future I have always envisioned for humankind. I assumed before long that viable, factory scale space stations would be in orbit, and within a century asteroid mining would be a viable industry. Soon the "Belters" would obtain independance from Earth and form a nation of sorts of their own. How long before a visit to Alpha Centauri?

Ah, so much more to say but I have an early lecture tomorrow and my Lab Final.

Soon.

If, When and How.

2005-05-01T04:13:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately, I have chosen to start this blogsite right in the middle of finals crunch. I have been pondering the repercussions of Peak Oil for I guess a month now and I have so many things I need to get out. I read that there are something like 8.5 million blogs like this out there. I wonder if the bulk of them have this 'I-gotta-get-it-out-there' energy curve where you see massive daily postings that gradually taper off to nothing. Maybe having to share finals with my need to elucidate will help flatten the curve.

The best bloggers I have seen take the time to quote others who have already written about the topic at hand. For now, when I talk about Peak Oil, I am going to assume that you have read some of the essays in the "Inevitable" column off to the right, or articles as you find them out in the main stream media. I just do not have the time right now to write but off the top of my head.

For me it is not a matter of 'if' this will happen. It seems that, even looked at simplistically, we are in a bind. The rate of new oil discoveries has been on decline since 1964. While they say there is still a lot of oil left, it is getting technologically harder to get out and economically less profitable - supply is on decline. On the demand side? Go out and look at traffic. Count the SUV's. I remember the day (you knew that was coming) when the car ads boasted the MPG's of the advertised vehicle at the bottom of the ad. Oh yes, China and India are joining the oil consuming world and they are both very thirsty. Oh, and p.s., we have done NOTHING as a nation to avert this disaster since Jimmy Carter first pointed that we need to look at it.

It is more a matter of when and how, specifically. After spending weeks in a 'the end is near' froth after reading essays like Kunstler's, or Bagaent's, or any of the numerable dismal websites devoted to this topic, I came across one written by Ran Prieur. It was like a glass of cool water on a hot day. The difference was in the timing of this event. On the one hand the potential immediacy and severity of the event, on the other, a more gradual sliding down. As Prieur puts it, “It won't be like falling off a cliff, more like rolling down a rocky hill." I'll let you read as I need to get going.

I e-mailed Prieur to thank him…

I just read your essay The Slow Crash and I think you
may have saved me. I have recently discovered the Peak Oil literature and had my paradigm shifted in a big way. Your essay is very well reasoned and the crash will probably be less dramatic than I had imagined.

I won’t be buying guns at any rate.

Thanks again,

Mike Plank

hi mike,

well, if i'm right i saved you, and if i'm wrong, and
it's a sudden hard crash, i may have killed you! :)
one thing i didn't mention, that makes me think it
will be slow, is that i think women have better
survival instincts than men, and none of the women i
know are worried, even if they've seen the peak oil
stuff. only very mechanical-thinking males are
worried.

Ran

I have noticed a similar phenomenon with some of the women with whom I have spoken.

Survivalism?

2005-04-30T08:43:00.000-07:00

I was thinking today about the concept of survivalism. Actually, I have thought about it often throughout my life. I admit, during the Clinton years of prosperity, I let my guard down. I think it was Kunstler's essay that slammed me back to reality.

The idea that our way of life, our standard of living, will improve is everyone's hope. Thinking that we may never have a life any better than we have now is okay for some but an uncomfortable proposition for many. The notion that our standard of living and level of safety will inevitably decline, maybe suddenly, can incite downright panic. Survivalism, as I understand it, addresses this insecurity and is nothing more than extending the notion of self-defense and self-preservation to a greater or lesser degree.

Most of us trust the government to come to our aid in the event of a large scale disaster. After every hurricane, tornado, or flood, FEMA steps in and the recovery is underway. Most people will ride it out with the only self-preservation being that they made it to the “safe room” in the house where there they had stored a gallon of water for each household member.

There are those that would be more prepared, the survivalist types. Stylistically, these people range from the family with a few weeks food and water stored in the pantry almost incidentally, because there were some great deals at Costco, to families with a wooded retreat stocked to the rafters with dehydrated, and freeze dried food, propane and gasoline storage in bulk as well as a well stocked armory. At the first sign of impending disaster, they would head for the retreat just as they had drilled a hundred times already.

One would think that of the three strategies mentioned above, the latter would offer the greatest chances for survival. I suppose in a temporary and regional crisis that would be true; the retreat is well stocked and the members are all trained. When the crisis has passed, they go home and rebuild.

However, the impending disaster of running out of cheap feul is neither temporary nor regional; it is permanent and global and nobody will be coming to the rescue.

Soon the government will run out of gas. Soon it will run out of stored grain, the production of which is heavily dependent on oil, but not before they cannot deliver the last of it. So, do the survivalists win? Unless they have a ‘Plan B’, no. They will run out of food too. If they relied on bullets for hunt for food, well, bullets are a finite resource. Did their stoves run on propane? Ooops. Did they drive there? I hope they can quickly convert their pick-up trucks to firewood, because this gas station is about to close shop.

So, what is Plan B?

Peak Oil

2005-04-29T21:57:00.000-07:00

In my opinion, what we are soon to go through trumps any of the political crap slinging going on these days. I suppose an enlightened administration, supported by an enlightened people could come up with some amazing and progressive Energy policy. A full on, balls-to-the-wall diversion of all our resources, financial, personal, spiritual, joined with much sacrifice might give us a smooth transition into a non-petroleum world.
Let's face it, it ain't gonna happen. Check out some of the well referenced Peak Oil links to the right.

Emerging Survival Manual

2005-03-05T14:30:00.000-08:00

Live as simply as possible.
Save up a three month minimum of living expenses.
Save up a three month minimum of water and non perishable food.
Learn some basic survival skills.
Begin dumping what you don't need.